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Laboratory for Methods of Long-Term River Flow

Forecasting and Regulation

(Prof. Dr. Dushen M. Mamatkanov, Head)

Activities:

• Development of mathematical models for probabilistic description, forecast and modelling of river flow fluctuation regimes;

• Research on the current status of water resources using uranium isotopic information; 

• Determination of criteria for crisis situations pertaining to water resources and ecology;

• Solution of problems related to interstate use of transboundary water resources.

Results:

• The Laboratory analyzed the function of probabilistic distribution curves and their statistical parameters on the basis of limited selection and with the use of the method of moments. As a result, a new theory for evaluation of probabilistic distribution curves of river flows has been developed.

• Analyzing isotopic composition of uranium in waters from different sources, scientists of the Laboratory determined three types of difference criteria for waters forming flows of mountainous rivers. These are waters contained in atmospheric precipitation and glaciers, in quaternary sediments and in hydrogeological massifs. In addition, shares of each type of waters in rivers of the Issyk-Kul basin have been determined;

• Principles, criteria and methods to evaluate quantitative and qualitative components of river flows of the Issyk-Kul lake basin have been developed. Isotopic data has been widely used to identify areas sensible to water or ecological crisis;

• In studies related to transboundary water resources management, the priority has been given to development of scientifically based conceptual regulations. These regulations are aimed at enabling Kyrgyzstan to exercise its sovereign right to use own water potential for sustainable development of the country’s economy. To achieve this goal, certain strategic provisions for interstate water allocation have been worked out;

• It has been found out that under the existing water allocation scheme Kyrgyzstan is not able to secure its sustainable development and economic well-being. In order to achieve these objectives, the country should use more than half of water resources originating within its territory. Analyzing international laws, different conventions and agreements, it has been established that the country has the right to provide its next generations with this natural resource of vital importance;

• A national strategy for rational use of the transboundary water sources has been developed. It aims at conducting consistent and steady measures to revise the existing regional water allocation scheme and to introduce economic mechanisms for transboundary water resources management.